Sunday 23 September 2012

Preview: New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins

The Jets travel to Miami today, desperate to take a winning record and some momentum into a ferocious section of schedule; they take on the Texans, 49ers and Patriots over the next four weeks. It's also an interesting homecoming for Tony Sparano, sacked by the 'phins last year but now back as a coordinator. The Dolphins are also 1-1, and keen to show the league that their victory over Oakland was a demonstration of their own ability, not simply a reflection of the Raiders' ineptitude.

3 Key Matchups to Watch

Randy Starks vs Jets' Interior Front

Randy Starks has been one of the Dolphins' best performers this year, and Jets fans remember with great pain his two interceptions of Mark Sanchez last year. Paul Soliai will have his hands full trying to hold his ground against all-pro center Nick Mangold, so the Dolphins will be looking for Starks to disrupt the Jets offense by overcoming the Matt Slauson/Vlad Ducasse rotation at left guard.

LaRon Landry vs Reggie Bush

Speed kills. Rex Ryan said as much when addressing CJ Spiller's success against the Jets week one, and it's speed more than anything else that has put Reggie Bush in the enviable position of being the NFL's second leading rusher. The Jets have upgraded their speed in a few positions precisely in order to give themselves a chance against backs like Bush, and nowhere is this more evident than at safety. Landry has 4.3 speed, can hit, and can tackle. If he has a big game, it will majorly undermine the Dolphins' efforts to get Bush going to the outside.

Ryan Tannehill vs Yeremiah Bell

The Dolphins' rookie quarterback had a solid game against Oakland, showcasing the willingness and arm talent to consistently drive the ball outside the numbers. Unfortunately for him, the Jets do a great job of locking down the outside, and are much more vulnerable in the middle of the field, covered by slower players like Bell, Scott and Harris. Tannehill has a good chance to consistently move the chains by making touch throws down the seam off play action, and has personnel in Davone Bess and Anthony Fasano who can do this with him.  If the wily veteran Bell, who has 13 years on the rookie, can get on top of these he has a good chance to crown his homecoming with big plays on the ball.

Quick Hits

Flatline- If Darelle Revis is fully fit, I'd be very surprised to see Brian Hartline achieve anything against his coverage. It's time for Joe Philbin's wide receiving by committee to come into it's own, which means players like Legedu Naanee stepping up to another level.

Holmes, sweet Holmes- After melting down spectacularly in Miami last year, Santonio Holmes returns to Miami as arguably the most important factor in the matchup. The Dolphins simply don't have anyone who can cover him at his best, so if he can stay focused he should have his first 100 yard game of the year.

High School Connection- With Dustin Keller and John Conner both out for this game, Konrad Reuland will be seeing increased action as both a TE and an h-back, after catching two passes against Pittsburgh. Though the recent waiver claim has had little time to pick up the Jets playbook, he does have a leg up on chemistry with the Quarterback, since he used to catch passes from him at Mission Viejo HS in California.

Miller Time - Though Daniel Thomas is also probable for this afternoon's game, the Jets do a pretty good job of shutting down power backs of his ilk. When Bush needs to be spelled, Miami would do well to turn to the quick rookie Miller, who recorded his first career TD against Oakland.

Air Sanchez- The Dolphins do an exceptional job defending the run, and the Jets really struggled to move the chains with Ground and Pound against the Steelers. The Jets should strive for balance, but they need to see Mark Sanchez have success in traditional passing situations and plays if they want to win this game.

Waiting for Wake- Cameron Wake will be eyeing this matchup with great relish. Though he inexplicably struggled against Wayne Hunter last year, the Dolphins' elite pass rusher will be lined up opposite the inexperienced Austin Howard all day, and has every reason to fancy his chances of getting his hands on Mark Sanchez.

Changing it up- If the Jets are serious about establishing the run in Miami then they need to employ all the variety at their disposal. In addition to looking to wear down the Miami linebackers with the bruising Shonn Greene, the Jets should be looking to incorporate Tim Tebow and Joe McKnight into the gameplan to try and generate some big plays.

Dazed and Confused- Ryan Tannehill has an enormous mental challenge ahead in the Jets defense. He'll be seeing all sorts of disguised blitzes and coverages from the Ryan/Pettine scheme, and needs to have the discipline to make his reads, not panic, and not throw hot reads to Revis island.

Hello, Goodbye- Having cut Jets' great Bryan Thomas on Saturday night, albeit a temporary move to allow room for Donnie Fletcher, Gang Green are hoping they can welcome Garret McIntyre to their playmakers list. He has a stern challenge ahead in the form of All-Pro Left tackle Jake Long. McIntyre has had struggles to tackle in the open field, so Reggie Bush will also be a fierce test of his ability to be the new starter full time.

Fields of Gold- The Dolphins could be punting a lot today, but they have the man to do it in Brandon Fields. If Fields shows up to play, it could be tough for the Jets to consistently drive 90 yards down the turf. Look for the Dolphins to prioritise ball security, keep the Jets pinned back, and let their defense keep them in the game until the bitter end.
 

Friday 21 September 2012

Reaction to Giants @Panthers

1. Wideout Hideout - Gradually, and even a little under the radar, Jerry Reese has built up an unrealistically deep and loaded corps of receivers in New York. Both of the receivers who were injured last night, Nicks and Hixon, are playmakers, but Eli today was able to get the job done with Cruz, Ramses Barden and Reuben Randle. I loved Randle coming out of LSU, and he just provides another string to a group that makes things happen outside and from the slot. Barden's emergence is another plus, but he will have more to prove when he's not going up against a fifth round rookie in press.

2. An Anxious Ron- When the Carolina Panthers finished last in the NFL in 2010, they replaced one defensive coach with another, in the hopes that Ron Rivera would be able to turn round an anaemic unit. Since then, the Panthers have spent a lot of money, and six picks in the first five rounds, trying to bolster the unit. With Jon Beason returning from injury and 9th overall pick Luke Kuechly also joining the mix, expectations were high for Ron's defenders. So far in 2012 however, the group hasn't impressed. The defensive line were bullied up front, and the young corners were victimised all day by Eli Manning. Jon Beason missed a chance at an interception, and Godfrey missed two. If the Panthers are serious about the Kalil promise and really believe that Cam's championship windows starts here, then Ron Rivera needs to get his guys playing a lot better than this.

3. Addition by Subtraction- The New York Giants offensive line had one of their best days in a long time against Carolina, giving Eli an unbelievably clean pocket with remarkable consistency, on top of blasting open huge holes for running back Andre Brown. One factor in the relative success of this particular lineup was the absence of perennial disaster David Diehl, currently the right tackle, who was sidelined with an injury Thursday night. The Giants' love affair with Diehl, who has been moved all over the Giants line in his role as a versatile liability, is pretty inexplicable, and they should seriously consider leaving Locklear and Will Beatty as the starters even once Diehl returns to his miserable 100%.

4. Follow the Leader- You never see the whole story on a TV broadcast, but I wasn't pleased to see so many pictures of Cam Newton moping alone on the sidelines. He, very admirably, criticised his own failings in leadership last year, and he needs to step up as a leader to get this young team through a difficult start to the season.

5. Fresh Prince- It was great to see Prince Amukamara healthy on Thursday night. Corey Webster has had a tough start to the year, and the first round pick has bags of potential if he can get on the field and build up the experience he needs. If the Giants are in the play-offs, a healthy Amukamara would be a huge boost to their side.

6. Adams' Family- Talented returner Joe Adams had arguably the worst night of any Panther, with two lost fumbles on returns. He's very young, and could provide some real explosion to that special teams unit, so it's up to his coaches and teammates to boost his confidence and help him forget about this game.

7. Stat of the Game- Giants linebacker Michael Boley now has an interception in each of the Giants first 3 games. It would seem that Quarterbacks are just not ready for a linebacker with his kind of speed and agility in coverage.

8. Don't Stop Believin' - It was a really tough outing for the Panthers, but don't write them off just yet. There's heaps of talent on that team, so they still have plenty of chances to recover and make a good run. On the other side, I wouldn't completely buy the Giants just yet. Their offense was given a lot of breaks tonight, and Eli will have more trouble against the opportunistic and aggressive defenses in his own divisional games.

Wednesday 19 September 2012

Quickfire Review- Browns at Bengals

What I Liked for the Browns

1. Youth in Revolt- The Browns made a bold choice to go with rookies Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson at Quarterback and tailback respectively, and they showed a lot of good things against the Bengals after an abysmal opener. While I'm hesitant to crown Weeden immediately- he racked up a lot of stats chasing the Bengals lead and throwing checkdowns, I did love that he avoided any costly errors against a capable defense. Richardson looked fantastic, especially on an explosive touchdown reception where he looked impossible to tackle, and another rookie, 2nd round tackle Mitchell Schwartz, played a solid game.

2. Más Massaquoi- While the talk was, as usual, all about new acquisitions like Gordon and Benjamin, the real impact at receiver in Cleveland needs to come from incumbent starters Greg Little and Mohamed Massaquoi. While neither looks like a true no.1, the perennially disappointing Massaquoi hinted that he might be the kind of reliable seam option who can produce in the West Coast offense, especially given Weeden's ability to throw over the middle.

What I liked for the Bengals

1. Playmakers, playmakers everywhere- I have no idea where Jay Gruden keeps finding these people, but the Bengals seem able to consistently put very real talent around Andy Dalton. This was easily Dalton's best game since the first half of last year, and he was enormously helped by contributions from the electric Andrew Hawkins and the impressive Armon Binns("Who?" -Everybody). The emergence of these young playmakers is only going to aid Dalton's development, and open up things further for the real blue chip talents, AJ Green and Jermaine Gresham.

2. A Special Day- The Bengals did a great job in the third phase on Sunday, consistently generating yardage on returns, limiting the impact of the very dangerous Josh Cribbs, and springing a thrilling punt return touchdown from "The Artist formerly known as Pacman" Jones. 

What I didn't like for the Browns

1.  Mourning Joe- Joe Haden is the Browns' best player outside of Joe Thomas, and those two are so far ahead of the rest of the side it's almost comic. The Browns need Buster Skrine to play a lot better than he did Sunday if they want to make it through Haden's suspension without digging a hole they can't get out of.

2. Mutiny of the Bounties- I've never liked Scott Fujita especially as a player, and I have little respect for him as a person after the dubious shenanigans of bountygate. Whether or not the NFL may have overreached in the specificity of their accusations, to me it stands without doubt that the Saints players and coaches were involved in a culture most of us would consider morally reprehensible, and went to great lengths to cover it up. As it stands in Cleveland at the moment, it's got to be unwise to give so much playing time to the uninspiring and possibly evil Fujita while failing to give blue collar, impact rookie LJ Fort a single snap on defense.

What I didn't like for the Bengals

1. Livin' on the edge- The Bengals desperately need the likes of Michael Johnson, who recorded a sack but  not much else, to step up in the absence of blue chip edge rusher Robert Geathers. Brandon Weeden had a host of problems when tormented by Jason Babin and Trent Cole, but the Bengals failed to get after the rookie and instead let him pick them apart all day.

2. Run Dimensional - Don;t get me wrong, I loved the acquisition of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, a player whose consistency and sure hands will bring a very steady presence to a young offensive unit. However, he's not going to set the world alight, and the Bengals need to incorporate their other runners, especially the intriguing Brian Leonard, into their gameplan more if they want to really threaten opponents on the ground.

Tuesday 18 September 2012

RIP Steve Sabol

A great man who pioneered how we watch football, and to whom much of the sports world is still trying to catch up. His list of achievements include overseeing over 100 Emmy's for NFL Films, which he stewarded to extraordinary heights. The link to follow gives a more detailed run down of his life, and details for a brain cancer charity recommended by his family.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000063643/article/steve-sabol-founder-of-nfl-films-dies

Jets 10 - 27 Steelers- Bullet Point Review

1. Unstoppable- A lot of things will be said about this game, and a lot of it will be about the Jets. Praise and blame will be aportioned, sometimes fairly, sometimes not. Make no mistake, however, one thing governed this game and prduced this result more than any other, and it's not even close. That thing? Ben Roethlisberger turned up to play. Time and time again he escaped the rush and fit perfect throws into tight coverage, all without any running game and shaky protection. The Steelers want to be a team that bullies you on defense and runs the ball down your throats, but when push comes to shove they can put the game on Big Ben's arm, sit back and watch the fireworks.

2. Full Court Press- Ben's younger counterpart had a frustrating day. Despite getting good protection, especially early in the game, Mark Sanchez was forced to throw the ball away or into impossible areas time and time again as his receivers struggled to get open. Stephen Hill seemed utterly unable to get off press coverage, Santonio Holmes drew some penalties but ultimately lost the physical battle with Ike Taylor, Jeremy Kerley seemed to totally lose confidence after a muffed punt, and Jeff Cumberland had a rough day coming in for Dustin Keller. Sanchez will get a ton of heat from box score analysts for his abysmal completion percentage, but in reality he made a lot of good throws that hit the turf when the receiver had a shot at it. One good thing about Sanchez's performance? He avoided costly mistakes, threw no picks and avoided sacks on multiple occasions.

3. Cornering the market- The Steelers are going with a youth movement at corner, and it paid off today. Ike Taylor had some bad penalties, but the likes of Lewis and Allen did a great job of blanketing their men.

4. Running Scared- The Jets offensive struggles were founded on their deeply uninspiring run game. Nick Mangold et al were doing a decent job up front, but Shonn Greene just isn't making anyone miss. Powell is a serviceable alternative, but if the Jets really want to threaten on the ground they have to gamble on incorporating the more mercurial Joe McKnight into a more significant role. The Jets know that the fumble prone McKnight is a risk to generate turnovers, but it's a risk they have to take if their more reliable running backs aren't even close to pushing four yards a carry.

5.  Rising Ryan- Ryan Clark has long been overshadowed by the more flamboyant Troy Polomalu. Not so on Sunday- Clark made a number of pivotal plays that underscored just how badly he was missed in week one.

6. Wherefore the Wildcat?- There were three wildcat plays on Sunday, including the Jets two best runs of the night, from Tebow and McKnight respectively. What's the point of spending a fourth round pick on a wildcat quarterback when you're not going to use him even in the situation you need him most? Rex, if you believe in it, use it.

7.  A win for Woodley- Lamar Woodley had a huge game for the Steelers, increasingly getting the better of Austin Howard as the game went on. Jets fans shouldn't panic though- few right tackles can consistently contend with Woodley, and Howard did a decent job of at least slowing him down.

8. Guards! Guards!- The Jets did one very confusing thing last night. Despite there being no indication that Slauson was injured, he was rotated out of the line for 10 offensive snaps, ostensibly because backup Vlad Ducasse has "earned the right to play". I don't get it- if Slauson is the better player, he shouldn't have to leave the field.

9.  Black and white and ref all over- Let's face it, it was a rough day for the replacement refs. The worst decision on the field undoubtedly went against Pittsburgh when Ike Taylor was called for a phantom pass inteference on Holmes. However, the most unfrogiveable decision came on a run that was challenged by Rex Ryan. Not only did the video ref miss that McIntyre had successfully brought the runner's knee down two yards behind the line, he also missed that Yeremiah Bell had ripped it out before the runner went down for good. The Refs had made two poor calls on the field, but both were inexplicably allowed to stand even on video review.

10.  A Star is Born?- The Jets got a lot of good performances tonight. However, none was more impressive, or more surprising, than that of former UDFA, AFL and CFL player Garrett McIntyre. He made a number of huge plays on running backs behind the line of scrimmage, and picked up a couple of sacks. The first was nothing more than good motor, but  the second was special. McIntyre beat Max Starks, the experiend left tackle, and fought through an impromptu double team when the running back chipped in, before bring Roethlisberger to the turf. The Jets need an every down player who can rush the passer, and if the notoriously hard working McIntyre can ball out like this every week then the ageing Thomas need never re-enter the line-up. McIntyre has been on four different NFL rosters in his career, and once admitted that Jets camp in 2011 was probably his last chance to make a roster in the NFL. He survived the bubble, and the Jets may be rewarded for showing so much patience with the 27 year old out of Fresno State.


Sunday 16 September 2012

Two College Games, Lots of Quick Hits

Things I thought watching Missouri vs Georgia and Texas A&M vs Florida

1. Aaron Murray is legit, but he shouldn't declare early. Has great, and I mean great, touch on his passes, but should remain in college to build up a body of work capable of overcoming concerns about his athletic limitations. This gives him the best chance to go in the top 10.

2. The last three Missouri starters are now players in the NFL, the only SEC team to whom this stat applies. James Franklin will become the fourth- someone will find a way to use him. Fast, physical runner.

3. Brad Madison looked fantastic against Georgia. Beat the right tackle twice for sacks, once on a spin move and once just steaming round the edge. Looked very  much like McClellin looked in that game against Green Bay.

4. I still really don't buy Jarvis Jones. Someone will reach for him because you can't teach first step that good, but I'm not sure I saw him get off one block against Missouri. Made some big plays getting round the edge before the tackle was off the line, but he was pretty much out of the play as soon as the guy got hands on him. Jones is not showcasing any additional moves or any aggression with his hands. His strength at the point of attack also leaves a lot to be desired, he got badly steamrolled on some running plays. Will be a situational rusher only in first season in NFL unless he develops a long way in a short time, or returns for his Senior season.

5. Marlon Brown has had an underwhelming college career, but if he continues to play like he did against Mizzou, he can be a mid round pick.

6. I loved watching Todd Gurley run. NFL type talent and skill set, but we have to hope that Georgia don't run him into the ground in his remaining years there.

7.  He may become a controversial NFL prospect many years in the future, but for now I'm content to watch Johnny Manziel as a college player. This guy can really play. Tim Tebow type potential as a dual threat in the college game. He also had 150 combined TDs playing High School in Texas, which is unreal.

8. I didn't notice a lot of players I loved for the Gators. Lerentee McCray made some nice plays, but also had a really dumb penalty. Jon Bostic is a sure fire choice for a team that needs a LB to produce tackles in the mid rounds.

9. The exception to this was tight end Jordan Reed. Still has a ways to go, but looks great with the ball in his hands, and I love the chances of a TE who can generate YAC.

10. Damontre Moore is a beast. He'll be able to play DE or OLB at the next level. Great explosion, closing speed and motor, but I loved that he looked as comfortable pusing around guards as going around tackles.

11. Luke Joeckel is a great tackle prospect, but I'm arguably more intrigued by Jake Matthews. It's rare that a potential first round talent is forced to the right side, and a team who already has their left tackle should jump at the chance to bookend their franchise player. Right tackle is a glaring need for loads of teams every year, and the Rams and Giants especially should be watching a ton of A&M tape.

12. Mike Evans, number 13, is going to be a high pick, mark my words. He's so young, but he'll grow with Manziel which will only inflate his production. But he's physically up to it, tenacious, good hands, and I love a wide receiver who can block.

Saturday 15 September 2012

3 Key Matchups- Jets @ Steelers

While the Jets are looking to build on an impressive, and unexpected, win against Buffalo, the Steelers are desperate to bounce back from a loss to the Broncos on the road. The Jets are short all-pro corner Darelle Revis, but the Steelers will miss OLB James Harrison and Hall of Fame safety Troy Polomalu just as badly. This game would seem to favour the Steelers, but the Jets can lay the foundations for an upset win in Pittsburgh if they come out on top of some key matchups.

Lamarr Woodley vs Austin Howard

The Jets inexperienced right tackle generated some shock and awe last sunday as he got on top of Mario Williams, but Pittsburgh's key rusher Lamarr Woodley represents just as stern a challenge. In the absence of James Harrison, the Steelers will be relying on Woodley to get to Mark Sanchez and disrupt the Jets passing game, which relies on giving the Sanchize functional time and space to make his throws. Howard will receive help from chip blocks and double teams, but if this game becomes a passing shootout he'll be increasingly left on an island against the fearsome Woodley. If Howard can build on his performance against the Bills, the sturdy Jets O-Line has the key to controlling this game.

Jets Interior Pass Rush vs  Steelers Interior Offensive Line

Two years ago, the Steelers hosted the Jets in the AFC Championship Game and won. That crushing defeat, and the manner of it, has enormously shaped the way the Jets have built.their team since. Incredibly frustrated by Ben Roethlisberger's ability to just run away from run stuffing linemen like Sione Po'uha and Mike DeVito, the Jets have spent two first round picks and a third rounder on more athletic youngsters in the trenches. Meanwhile, the traditionally porous Pittsburgh line has alreay lost first rounder David DeCastro, and Ramon Foster will play on Sunday despite being injured in Pittsburgh's opener. If the Steelers are going to get the ball downfield against the Revis-less Jets secondary then their maligned interior line is going to have to come up with big plays against a hungry young group of freakish athletes.

Casey Hampton vs Nick Mangold

The Jets know exactly how they want to beat the Steelers. They want to get off the line, hit someone in the mouth, and send Shonn Greene up the middle until the Steelers linebackers are too beaten and bruised to run. Conversely, the Steelers know that if the Jets can be forced to put the game on the arm of Mark Sanchez, then opportunities to create turnovers will arise. The fight to establish that violent running game starts with a marquee matchup right at the heart of the physical battle. Casey Hampton has been one of the best pure nose tackles in the game fora long time. Most teams wouldn't dare leave someone one on one with him in the run game, but then again, most teams don't have Nick Mangold. The all-pro center has his work cut out on Sunday, as the truly great man across from him will demand a flawless performance.

Quick Hits

1. Safety Dance- Although Polomalu may be out, the Steelers are lucky to have Ryan Clark back. One of the most impressive, and underrated, safeties in the league, his absence has been a key factor in the consecutive losses at Mile High.

2. Steel City Mayhem- The Jets need to use Aaron Maybin in this game, and they need him to step up. Their 2011 sack leader barely got on the field against his old team last week, but but the Jets need him to replicate the Denver speed rush that gave the Steelers enormous problems in their opener.

3. Smashmouth- The Steelers need to commit to the run, but this is a tough team to do it against. The Jets have traditionally been very sturdy against the run, and the Steelers will need a big game from the emerging Jonathan Dwyer if they're to balance the offense and control the pace of the game.

4. The Student must become the Master- In the fourth quarter of that brutal AFC Championship defeat, Kyle Wilson got to an ill-judged Big Ben pass, but let it pass through his hands and hit him in the facemask. The game could have spun on that moment, but the rookie let it go. Since that time, Wilson has worked incredibly hard with Darelle Revis to improve his game, culminating in a career performance against the Bills. Nobody left more on the field two years ago than Wilson, so he needs to come back with a vengeance with his mentor confined to the sidelines.

5. Rextraordinary Evidence- Rex Ryan may have given up predicting Superbowls, but he's lost none of his confidence. He opened the season by referring to himself as the best defensive coach in football, a title that would usually pass by consensus to Dick LeBeau. Luckily for him, Rex has a chance this week to go to LeBeau's house and make his bold claim seem a lot less far-fetched.

6. Holy Smokes!(and mirrors)- The Steelers know exactly what Tim Tebow can do if you underestimate him, because they learned the hard way in January. While it's unlikely that Tebow will be the key to this game, it can't hurt the Jets that time spent by the Steelers preparing for the Tebowcat is time not spent preparing for Shonne Greene and Mark Sanchez.





Friday 14 September 2012

Rivalry Revisited- The Bears get humbled in Green Bay

I picked the Bears in this game, which only adds to the many, many reasons that nobody's going to be calling me Crystal Bob any time soon. Here's two up, two down for each team in the Packers' big win.

The Keys to Packer Victory

The Defense

This defense got a lot of stick last season, constantly failing to come up with the stops it needed and putting the entire game on the arm of Aaron Rodgers. I was suspicioius of reports that a defense heavy draft was the key to a resurgence, because people tend to massively overrate the impact of new players on the quality of a defensive unit. The Key to an instant defensive renaissance is instead comebacks for those who've delivered in the past, and veterans like Tramon Williams, C(lay)F(*cking)M(atthews), and B.J Raji did exactly that. Matthews has always been good, but has already beaten his low, albeit deceptively so, sack total for last year, displaying unambiguous dominance in all phases of the game. Williams demonstrated that he's fully back from an injury that marred his 2011 campaign. Raji dissappointed badly last season, despite inexplicably making the Pro Bowl, but his special athletic gifts make him the key to wins in the Wisconsin trenches. If Raji et al can recapture the magic in January the Pack will be unstoppable- especially if rookies like Worthy and Hayward build on promising performances to make an impact as the season continues.

Cedric Benson

Cedric Benson's lack of explosion gets a lot of criticism, but the former Bengal has put up reliable, crucial numbers for a long time. James Starks and Randall Cobb should be able to generate more of a big play threat, but Benson showed against the Bears that he can be a reliable option on first down, second down and short yardage. Benson and McCarthy are clearly undergoing a process where Benson is slowly learning the nuances of the Green Bay system, while McCarthy is simulataneously coming to understand how he needs to use Benson to put him in a position to succeed. If their relationship becomes more productive going forward, then Green Bay should just about generate enough of a running game to take some pressure off their porous pass protection.

...but they still need work.

The Offensive Line

There's one thing you can't argue with in the NFC North: the pass rush. Marshall Newhouse and TJ Lang especially struggled with the Bears' talented defensive front, and Aaron Rodgers can expect to have some bruising days against the likes Cliff Avril and Jared Allen in the coming season.

Butterfingers

In a game where both offenses struggled, no part of it was more ugly to watch than the drops. Jermichael Finley has clearly yet to smooth over the perennially tempestuous relationship between his hands and the ball, and the usually reliable Jordy Nelson had two nasty drops. These guys need to get past this and make sure that A-Rod has targets he can trust on third down.

Where the Bears Went wrong

Pass Protection

While the Bears line did a good job clearing lanes for their running backs, they looked like the same old punching bags when Jay Cutler dropped back to pass. Cutler was sacked and hit more than he completed passes, and J'Marcus Webb and Gabe Carimi were abused all day by Clay Matthews. There were also a number of costly, stupid penalties.With all the dangerous pass rushers in the league, Webb in particular has to recover his form from last week if Cutler's going to have the Pro Bowl season he's more than capable of.

Cutler's Decisions

Cutler did a great job on several occasions of escaping the constant pressure. Unfortunately, this was less likely to lead to a big play than to a costly pick. While Cutler would have had more success if his playmakers were doing more for him down the field, his picks were typically balls that he should not have thrown, and there were more in this category that the Packers secondary put on the turf.

...and why they still have grounds to be optimistic.

D-line, give yourselves a hand

Bears defense, you just held the league's best quarterback to 219 yards, a TD and a pick. And it all started in the trenches, as Melton, Peppers, McClellin and Wootton brought pressure all day. With Amobi Okoye also in the mix with these guys, the Bears have put together the sort of deep and dangerous sack squad that often propels teams deep into January.

Secondary, give yourselves a hand

The Bears have struggled in the defensive backfield for a long time, the limitations of their revolving doors at safety protected only by their elite front seven and tampa-2 system. Chris Conte and Major Wright have played well in weeks one and two. More importantly, however, Jennings and Tillman are a corner pairing who look to be the envy of all but a few teams in the league. 

Quick Hits

1. Matt Forte looks to have picked up another injury, vindicating the decision to recruit Michael Bush, but also potentially revealing a glaring lack of depth behind him. With Kahlil Bell gone, Armando Allen has to step up, after having one rush for negative yardage and an ugly drop in Green Bay.


2. You can bet a good sum of money that the Bears have circled December 16 on their calendars with their boldest sharpie. The rematch against Green Bay at Soldier Field will see the Bears fired up with a vengeance and, if the Bears have bounced back into play-off contention, could be the key to the race for the NFC North.

3. I'm not backing down from my prediction that the Bears will represent the NFC in the Superbowl. Jay Cutler is better than he played last night, and that defense will terrorise Quarterbacks in January.

4. Let's not jump on the Green Bay defensive bandwagon too aggressively. You can't fault how they played, but they benefited from an incredible atmosphere in Lambeau, some costly drops by Bears receivers, and a brilliant gameplan from Dom Capers. If Aaron Rodgers can't recapture his unstoppable form, it'll be up to this defense to grind out some tough wins on the road against much slicker offensive units.

5. While it worries me that Rodgers does not seem quite so imperious so far this season, he has been playing against two of the best defenses in football. Expect his stats to recover soon enough, and Green Bay will only benefit if he's saving his best form for the home stretch.

twitter.com/bobister


Thursday 13 September 2012

3 Key Matchups for Thursday Night Football

3 Key Matchups for the Bears @Packers

Packers Secondary vs Themselves

The Packers secondary didn't play well in almost any department against the 49ers, but really killed themselves with broken coverages. While Alex Smith missed a couple of easy touchdowns, Jay Cutler will do a much better job of pulling the trigger downfield. The Packers' secondary is talented on paper, but will get destroyed if they lose organisation again.

Nick Perry vs J'Marcus Webb

Nick Perry came in to the season as a highly regarded rookie pass rusher, Webb as the league's most viciously maligned blindside protector. However, the narratives were reversed last week as Nick Perry looked totally lost in all phases, while J'Marcus Webb stonewalled the Colts in pass protection and graded the road for Matt Forte. Webb will have to contend with both Perry and Clay Matthews, so if he falters and Perry resurges, it could be a long day for Jay Cutler.

Jordy Nelson vs Tim Jennings

The Packers need Jordy Nelson to step up with Greg Jennings unlikely to play tonight. Unfortunately, he'll often be lined up opposite Bears corner Tim Jennings, who exploded onto the NFL stage against Indianapolis. Jennings has been underrated for some time, and the Bears will need him to be at his best to contend with the league's reigning MVP and his talented group of pass catchers.

My Pick for this game: The Bears. While Rodgers alone means the Packers can never be ruled out of any game, the Bears should benefit from having the superior defense and more balanced offensive unit.

Wednesday 12 September 2012

Notes on LSU prospects.

I was paying particular attention to three intriguing LSU prospects in the game against Washington. Here are my thoughts on the next big things from Baton Rouge, based on this game and other tape.

Zach Mettenberger, QB

Jr., 21 years old, 6-5/230

It's really too early to see what kind of Quarterback Zach's really going to be. After two starts, he could be a 7th rounder, or he could be the first overall pick. Anything is possible for Mettenberger, but he would be foolish to declare this year. The former University of Georgia and Butler Community College quarterback has an NFL calibre arm, but needs to work on his game before he'll be ready to make the jump. Nevertheless, I really like his arm strength, and he's young so he has plenty of time to clean up a slightly laborious release. He did a great job moving around in the pocket and finding the open man against Washington, although he wasn't under very much pressure. Crucially, he didn't make any costly mistakes. His strong arm, and prototypical size, means he has the physical tools to push himself into first round consideration in the 2014 NFL draft.

Comparisons in the NFL?: It's really too early to see what kind of Quarterback Zach's really going to be. However, his physical tools means he's comparable to Brandon Weeden as a recent prospect, and Philip Rivers as a veteran.

Good Fits for Zach: We don't really know who'll still need a Quarterback in 2014, but I really like the idea of putting him in the mix in either Denver or New England. Especially if he declares this year, he'll need to work behind a veteran for a time, but should be a starter down the line.

Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB

Jr., 22 years old, 6-5/240, 8 sacks in 2011

Barkevious Mingo is fast. Really, really, blindingly fast. You can be watching him run on film, think, "he's fast, but he's only quite fast", and then you realise tha you're watching the slow motion replay and everyone else looks like they're playing with their feet in cement blocks. The LSU pass rusher has great size and a first step to die for. Those tackles that do get their hands on him can end up on the receiving end of a pretty nasty spin move. If that doesn't work, he's still going to keep coming, because he's got a phenomenal motor. I'm not sure I've ever seen him give up on a play. Once he's got a lane to the Quarterback, he's on him like lightning. He's also tough to trick, and consistently shows a great ability to key in on what the offense is doing. He does very well blowing up play-action, and doesn't bite on fakes very often.Mingo's going to be a top ten pick, because he has the ability to come in to a team and put up double digit sacks as a rookie. He's only two games into his junior season, but he already looks ready to compete in the NFL. However, the team that does acquire him would be smart to use him as Aldon Smith was used in his first season in San Francisco. Though capable of making a big impact when unleashed at a passer, his strength at the point of attack leaves something to be desired. Physically he'll be more than capable of being a 3 down player in the long term, but he might well get abused in the running game early on. He may well have to bulk up at the NFL, especially if he's going to play DE in a 4-3. He can do this, or play as a 3-4 outside linebacker.

Comparisons in the NFL: Mingo suffers from a comparison to Bruce Irvin or Vinny Curry. He's a more complete prospect than either, but he shares their electric speed. When it comes to comparing him to a veteran,  he needs to bulk up. If he does, he'll earn comparison to rushers like Robert Mathis and Shawn Philips.

Good fits for Barkevious: There'll be a bunch of teams on the look out for a guy like Mingo in April. The Jets still need a pass rusher, and the Steelers need a long term replacement for James Harrison. However, Mingo will be gone long before he gets to either of these teams. Both the Arizona Cardinals and Indianapolis Colts should be on the look out for edge rushers high in next year's draft, and they'll both take a long hard look at Mingo.

Sam Montgomery, DE/OLB

Jr., 22 years old, 6-5/260, 9 sacks in 2011

Sam Montgomery is not quite as fast as Mingo, but is, to me, the more impressive player. Mingo gets to the quarterback, and terrorises bad tackles, but Montgomery is more well rounded and dominant in every phase. Two plays against Washington stand out, even though Montgomery achieved little of real impact on either. On the first, Montgomery applies pressure to the Washington Quarterback Keith Price deep in his own half. Montgomery gets off the line of scrimmage and round the edge so quickly that the tackle just never gets his hands on him. Price gets the ball away, but Montgomery gets in a hit. Only a few plays later, the Huskies decide to run a rollout play-action away from Montgomery's side. Montgomery is trying to chase it down, so he comes across the face of the tackle and instead engages with the guard. When I say engages, I mean ploughs through him so hard that the guard is tossed into his own running back. Montgomery has that unreal mix of strength and speed that allows him to be a terrifying force whatever the offense is trying to do to him. He might not blow up the combine as much as his pass rush partner Mingo, but he's the Senior partner on tape.

Comparisons in the NFL: No pass rush prospect as good as Montgomery was available in the 2012 draft. He's perhaps most similar to Robert Quinn from 2011. In the NFL, if he develops as I expect him to, I think he can be a DeMarcus Ware type player.

Good fits for Sam: Pretty much every team in the NFL could use a stud pass rusher like Montgomery. The Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns and Oakland Raiders could all really use him. Montgomery could, and should, go in the top five based on what I've seen so far.




Monday 10 September 2012

Needs vs Prospects

Unlike the previous needs/prospects post, this is designed to pair good teams with players that could make them better, rather than bad teams filling gaping holes in their roster.

New York Giants, Barrett Jones, C/G/T, Alabama

Senior, 6-5/302

Barrett Jones has been moved around the line in Alabama as a moving piece, to allow them to get their four most talented other linemen onto the same field as him. Not many players can move from being an elite blindside protector to being a mauling centre without skipping a beat. Barrett Jones might be the only one. The Giants have been big fans of building a patchwork offensive line and letting Eli take the punishment. As he gets older, this becomes a riskier proposition. Eli's a tough cookie, but they can't afford for him to get a hereditary neck injury. A versatile lineman like Jones will allow them to kick their worst lineman off the team (a hard fought contest, being won by David Diehl at the moment) regardless of which position he plays. A solid run blocker like Jones will also help them get production from 2012 1st round pick David Wilson.

Kansas City Chiefs, Logan Thomas, QB, Virgina Tech

Junior, 6-6/260

The Chiefs are stacked, and their roster is arguably the best overall in the NFL. Pat yourself on the back Scott Pioli, but don't get your hopes of a ring up too far, because you'll need a lot of  luck to do that with Matt Cassel at Quarterback. The Chiefs have to upgrade on Cassel's inconsistency and physical limitations if they're going to compete. Jamaal Charles is unreal, but even he would benefit from a Quarterback who could work play action and stretch the field to Bowe and Baldwin. Will Logan Thomas be an instant upgrade over Cassel? No, he'll be a rookie. However, he's the most physically talented Quarterback in the class, and the Chiefs will never be better set up to develop a raw Quarterback from scratch than they are now. They're loaded with talented linemen, runners and pass catchers to help him adjust. Then, if they can get Thomas to his potential, they'll be locked in as a play-off team for a decade, no matter who they put around him.

Green Bay Packers, TJ McDonald, S, USC

Senior, 6-3, 265

You know who the Packers really miss? Nick Collins. And pretty soon they'll miss Charles Woodson even more. They badly need an enforcer at safety, but also a guy who can grow into the role of field general back there. Dom Capers' aggressive scheme leaves guys on islands, which in turn led to a bunch of busted coverages. McDonald has great range and instincts, and ensuring solidity at safety in the long term will help corners like Williams and Shields perform at their best.

Chicago Bears, CJ Mosley,  LB, Alabama

Junior, 6-2/232

I'm not sure there's a player in college football I like more than CJ Mosley. He's a violent, instinctive linebacker who will do everything that's asked of him. He can cover, he can blitz, and he can really hit a guy. I wouldn't be surprised if he returns to the Crimson Tide for his senior season, but who knows, he might be allured if he's told that he's well placed to be a top 10 pick. The Bears have been putting off finding good young linebackers for a while, but 2013 should be the year that they finally bite the bullet on looking for a future beyond Briggs and Urlacher. If Mosley joins the Bears, it'll re-affirm their commitment to an elite defense after a season where Cutler, Forte and Marshall are more likely to have made the headlines.

Two Needs, Two Prospects

This is obviously massively effected by overreaction to the week one games so far. Really, this is just an attempt to pair two teams that struggled on Sunday with interesting prospects from College Football.

Cleveland Browns, Robert Woods, WR, USC

Junior, 6-1/190

The Browns might as well just phone in Brandon Weeden's development at this point and move on to the next Quarterback on the carousel- they'll have to anyway in 5 years when he gets too old and retires. However, if they're serious about making Weeden the franchise in Cleveland, they've got to get him some weapons. The Browns have recently spent picks on the raw but athletic Travis Benjamin and Josh Gordon. If they're lucky, one of these guys will cut it and develop into a good number two option. By spending a high pick on Woods, they can get a genuine numer one receiver and safety blanket for their washed up minor league pitcher/ talented "young" quarterback. Woods put up about 1292 yards and 15 Touchdowns last year, and he was playing hurt. His catching radius is excellent, he can beat you short and deep, and he is incredibly dangerous with the ball in his hands. He has a very genuine chance to cement a reputation as the top receiver in the draft, and lock himself into the top 5 selections. Highly rated receivers should get a bump from the success of AJ Green(4th Overall) and Julio Jones(6th overall), and maybe also Blackmon(5th Overall) in Jacksonville.

Miami Dolphins, Michael Buchanan, DE, Illinois

Senior, 6-6/240

Joe Philbin needs to go out and bolster his defense so that they can protect his job, and Stephen Ireland's, while Tannehill works through his growing pains.

Buchanan will be a great bookend for Cameron Wake. Having performed well opposite Mercilus for the fighting Illini last season, he's now stepping up to replace him. He's experienced, having played for two years already, and should break out for double digit sacks this year. We saw last year how the Seahawks (and reportedly a number of other teams) fell in love with Bruce Irvin's burst off the line of scrimmage, and ignored other attributes because you just can't teach first step that good. I love Buchanan's first step, and his array of moves. He plays the run and pass well, and should be able to justify a top 10 pick by the end of the season.


Matt Barkley, QB, USC 

2013 NFL Prospect,  Senior, 6-2/230lb


 I don't, right now, see Matt Barkley as a worthy first overall pick in April. He's being touted as the top QB as it stands, but in truth this is because none of the more physically talented guys have yet distinguished themselves. It's hard to tell who yet, but at least one of Wilson, Smith, Jones, Thomas and Bray is going to start jumping off the screen as the season goes on. Once he does, it will be relatively straightforward for him to leapfrog the more physically limited Barkley in the eyes of scouts at the top level.

My problem with Barkley as it stands is very harsh. He has not been put in a position to fail, and succeeded nonetheless. He has succeeded, but in the face of overwhelming odds in his favour. He has consistently good protection, a solid running game, and the best wideout combo in all of College football. He has effective hot reads and checkdowns, and does not need to consistently extend plays or make impossible throws to move the chains. Until he has more adversity to overcome, I'm not comfortable predicting success in the NFL for the USC Quarterback. However, he has won some big games and put up big numbers in high pressure situations, so it's far from impossible.

Nevertheless, I don't see him as a transformative player that can take a failing franchise by the scruff of the neck. If he lands with a good franchise, who will surround him with talent and develop him with patience, his ceiling is very high. There is nothing I have seen that rules out a Drew Brees type career. But a Drew Brees type career involves a number of rocky years with an up and down franchise before having enormous success when paired with a great line, running game, and game changing talent at the receiver position.

The best fits for Matt as I see him now are definitely Buffalo and Kansas City, both of which have good lines and explosive players at the skill positions, but will potentially be in the market for new Quarterbacks. His intelligence and quick release make him a perfect fit for Chan Gailey's scheme with the Bills, but I suspect that if Buffalo are drafting high and moving on from Fitzmagic, they've probably moved on from Gailey aswell. Kansas would protect him with their talented line, and ask little of him beyond putting the ball in the hands of talented playmakers like Charles, Bowe and McCluster. The infuriating inconsistency of Matt Cassel has hamstrung the Chiefs for years, and if Cassel doesn't redeem himself in 2012 it will be hard to resist trading up for a falling Barkley.

Sunday 9 September 2012

5 Things I think about Sunday's Early Games

1. How does it happen that, every year, fans and analysts get worked up on the preseason, make predictions based on the preseason, and preseason performance is mentioned ad nauseam in pre-game punditry for week one, only for everyone to immediately realise and agree that the preseason doesn't matter about 10 minutes into the games. And people will keep saying things like, "and here's more proof that the preseason is irrelevant". We know. We went through this rollercoaster of emotion last year. At some point we have to agree that the way coaches play preseason games is all about assessing elements of their team that don't really interest the media, and that we only talk about it like it's relevant to the important stuff because we have nothing else to do.

2. It sucks watching the Browns continue to make awful decisions year in year out, especially when Dick Jauron has quietly fashioned that defense into a more than serviceable unit. It is an ugly reality of the game today that, especially in tumultuous and unstable franchises, under pressure head coaches will continue to lose focus on the task at hand. Pat Shurmur and Mike Holmgren seem to have lost their focus on winning games. The decision to gamble Brandon Weeden's development and Trent Richardson's health  by rushing them into action Week One was not a responsible football judgement. It was a desperate ploy by two guys with a new owner to impress, who are prioritising the significance of vindicating their own bold draft decisions as soon as possible. Patience is a difficult thing to stomach for a coach on the hotseat, or an owner keen to ring the changes, but it's arguably the most important difference between the NFL's best and worst teams. Eli took years to become Eli. Peyton took a decade to win a playoff game. Don Shula went 3-10 in his first season as the coach of the Miami Dolphins. Rodgers and Brady both warmed benches for the first years of their NFL careers. The Browns impatience is bringing them no closer to where they want to be.


3. Congratulations Jacksonville, it looks like Gabbert's critics came too soon. It's one game, and Gabbert needs to build on a strong performance to truly overturn the negative perception of him, but hopefully he'll continue to develop and impress. Mojo's return, and increasing acclimatisation of his receivers in the system, should help Gabbert in this enterprise. A ton of credit will also be owed to Mike Mularkey, much maligned in Atlanta for his play-off malaise, but a smart choice to develop a young, raw quarterback.

4. Adrian Peterson is unreal. Those knee injuries do not go down easy, but Peterson played with awesome toughness and violence against the Jaguars. I fear they gambled by bringing him back so early, especially when his backup showed so much promise last season, but that doesn't mean I'm not a little awed by what he did when it was asked of him.

5. The tail end of last season was all about pass rush. Pierre-Paul was dominating the headlines, Aldon Smith and Von Miller were vying for the DROY crown, and Terell Suggs fought off Revis island to be named as the deensive player of the year. But in week one so far, pass rush has not been the order of the day. The vaunted Giants front struggled to trouble an ascendant Romo, and the 100 million dollar man Mario Williams was anonymous against the Jets. Even the extraordinarily talented Eagles front registered a pathetice two sacks of rookie Brandon Weeden. Mathias Kiwanuka was not the first to blame holding for this drought, blaming the replacement refs by implication, and he won't be the last.